BarclaysJohn Varley is a genius.

For all the “it looks like RBS sunk Barclays chance at ABN Amro,” the CEO of Barclays Plc has managed to lay out the ace in his company’s hand.  On Monday, it was announced that the China Development Bank and the Singapore investment arm, Temasek, were to take a 5.2% stake in Barclays, thus propping up the share price toward matching the RBS deal.

And while business publications such as the Financial Times focused on discussing the potential exit strategy if the RBS bid wins, the new investments are relevant for an additional reason: they give the new, combined group access to the Asian markets.

Yes, the new offer raises the cash element of the original deal–which still lacks in the actual euro figure as opposed to the RBS bid–however the potential for accessing China is an immense proposition that neither RBS, Santander, or Fortis can offer on the table.  Not only does Barclays’ new bid raise the cash element, it taps into a market that, when ultimately served, can create far more value for the ABN shareholders than does the RBS bid.  Additionally, this will allow for Barclays to walk away from the bidding process if necessary, without becoming a takeover target itself.

At this point, I think that ABN shareholders would be wise to bank on this proposition for a couple of reasons.  First, the cash component of the Barclays bid has been raised, inching it toward more equal footing with the RBS bid (who apparently, had been in merger discussions with ABN for almost 2 years).  Second, synergy savings estimates can be revised and re-revised, but there are only so many costs that can be saved.  RBS may have had the upper hand on this aspect of its bid, but it could easily enough miss the target. Third, this would set up the merged bank as a truly international bank.  Though both bidders have foreign market exposure, the Barclays merger allows for greater expansion into the Asia region – something that ABN has had a history of successes with, but the RBS consortium doesn’t.  Barclays already operates massive investing in the region and, combined with its new investors, has even more access to a broader Asian market.  As a result, there is more growth potential (and thus, more value potential) than there is for RBS.

It is this last point that is perhaps the most key to the Barclays bid.  In the long run, the difference in €3.1bn between bids will be negligible compared to the potential.  But that’s what a merger is about, no?  The potential for growth?  ABN Amro CEO Rijkman Groenink has said from the get-go that he believes Barclays to be the right choice.  I couldn’t put my finger on it, but it made sense before, it makes sense now, and I think that if Barclays is chosen, it will make sense in the future as well.